Bengal Election 2026 Phase 1: Complete District Wise Seat Analysis and Chances

Bengal Election 2026 Phase 1: Complete District Wise Seat Analysis and Chances

Phase 1 of the West Bengal Assembly Election 2026 votes on April 23. 152 constituencies go to polls in the first phase, covering the districts of Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, Birbhum, Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur, Jalpaiguri, Malda, Murshidabad, Uttar Dinajpur, Dakshin Dinajpur, Paschim Bardhaman, Darjeeling, Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, and Kalimpong. 

This is the phase that will define Bengal's political direction. It covers BJP's strongest territory in North Bengal and Jungle Mahal and TMC's consolidated pockets in Murshidabad, Malda, and Birbhum. Bharat and Beyond gives you a complete district by district, seat by seat breakdown with honest assessment of who is likely to win where.

Three verdicts are used throughout: BJP Likely, TMC Likely, and Toss Up. A Toss Up seat is one where either party can win with a swing of under 3 percent.

The 2021 polls saw BJP surge to 77 seats, gaining around 30 seats in Junglemahal covering Paschim Medinipur, Jhargram, Purulia, and Bankura, as well as making big gains in North Bengal. TMC rebounded to 213 seats despite anti-incumbency, dominating minority belts in Malda, Murshidabad, and retaining South Bengal strongholds.

With that context, here is the full Phase 1 district by district breakdown.

NORTH BENGAL DISTRICTS

1. Cooch Behar: 9 Seats

Cooch Behar is BJP's most reliable district in North Bengal. It has a large Hindu voter base, significant Rajbanshi community presence, and Matua voters along the border. Former Union Minister Nisith Pramanik is personally contesting from Mathabhanga here.

Mekliganj (SC): Closely fought in 2021. BJP has been building steadily. Toss Up leaning TMC.

Mathabhanga (SC): Nisith Pramanik contesting personally. His presence is decisive. BJP Likely.

Cooch Behar Uttar (SC): BJP won in 2021. Strong incumbent advantage. BJP Likely.

Cooch Behar Dakshin: BJP won in 2021. One of their reliable seats. BJP Likely.

Sitalkuchi (SC): Scene of violence in 2021 polls. Sensitive seat. TMC has strong local organisation. Toss Up.

Sitai (SC): TMC hold from 2021. BJP candidate Ashutosh Barma has been fielded but the local TMC network is intact. TMC Likely.

Dinhata: BJP won in 2021. Solid BJP seat in this district. BJP Likely.

Natabari: BJP candidate Girija Shankar Roy has been fielded. Competitive but BJP has momentum. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Tufanganj: TMC has traditionally been stronger here. TMC Likely.

Cooch Behar Verdict: BJP should win 4 to 5 seats. Target 5. Anything above that is a bonus night.

2. Alipurduar: 5 Seats

Tea garden country. BJP has dominated here since 2019 through strong tribal outreach and Matua community support.

Kumargram (ST): BJP won in 2021. Tribal constituency with consolidated BJP support. BJP Likely.

Kalchini (ST): Another tribal seat. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Alipurduar: Urban district seat. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Falakata (SC): TMC gave a tough fight in 2021. The margin was narrow. Toss Up.

Madarihat (ST): BJP candidate Laxman Limbu is defending this seat. Solid BJP territory. BJP Likely.

Alipurduar Verdict: BJP should win 4 of 5. Falakata is the only uncertainty.

3. Jalpaiguri: 7 Seats

Jalpaiguri has been shifting toward BJP since 2019 through strong tea garden worker outreach and SC community consolidation.

Dhupguri (SC): BJP candidate Naresh Chandra Roy is contesting. BJP won here in 2021. BJP Likely.

Maynaguri (SC): BJP replaced original candidate with Dalim Roy. Closely contested. Toss Up.

Jalpaiguri (SC): BJP won in 2021. Holding this seat is important. BJP Likely.

Rajganj (SC): TMC won in 2021. Their local organisation is strong here. TMC Likely.

Dabgram-Phulbari: Urban seat in the district. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Mal (ST): BJP candidate Sukra Munda fielded here. Tribal seat with strong BJP support. BJP Likely.

Nagrakata (ST): Closely contested between BJP and TMC. Toss Up.

Jalpaiguri Verdict: BJP should win 4 to 5. Rajganj is the one they are unlikely to flip.

4. Darjeeling: 5 Seats

Hill politics and Gorkha community sentiment dominate this district. BJP and GJM are allied giving BJP a structural advantage in the hills.

Darjeeling: GJM and BJP allied territory. BJP Likely.

Kurseong: Hills seat dominated by Gorkha community politics. BJP-GJM alliance holds. BJP Likely.

Matigara-Naxalbari (SC): Plains seat with strong Hindu consolidation behind BJP. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Siliguri: Largest urban centre in North Bengal. Three-way contest between BJP, TMC, and Left-Congress. BJP has been competitive here. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Phansidewa (ST): BJP won in 2021. Tribal terrain with BJP-friendly consolidation. BJP Likely.

Darjeeling Verdict: BJP should win 4 of 5. Siliguri is the only question.

5. Kalimpong: 1 Seat

Kalimpong: Hill politics territory allied with BJP through GJM. BJP Likely.

6. Uttar Dinajpur: 9 Seats

Uttar Dinajpur is one of the most challenging districts for BJP. Large Muslim voter population and strong TMC-Congress competition for the minority vote.

Chopra: BJP candidate Shankar Adhikari is contesting. TMC has strong presence here. Toss Up leaning TMC.

Islampur: Predominantly Muslim voter base. TMC Likely.

Goalpokhar: Large Muslim population. TMC Likely.

Chakulia: Mixed constituency. BJP competitive but TMC has the edge. Toss Up.

Karandighi: TMC stronghold. TMC Likely.

Hemtabad (SC): BJP won this in 2021. One of their reliable seats in this tough district. BJP Likely.

Kaliaganj (SC): BJP won in 2021. Another reliable seat. BJP Likely.

Raiganj: District headquarters. Congress held it before. Three-way contest with BJP competitive. Toss Up.

Itahar: TMC hold with strong ground network. TMC Likely.

Uttar Dinajpur Verdict: BJP should win 2 to 3 seats here. Muslim voter consolidation behind TMC is very strong.

7. Dakshin Dinajpur: 6 Seats

Slightly more balanced than Uttar Dinajpur but still challenging for BJP in several constituencies.

Kushmandi (SC): TMC has incumbent advantage. Toss Up leaning TMC.

Kumarganj: BJP building momentum here. Toss Up.

Balurghat: District headquarters. BJP performed well here in 2024. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Tapan (ST): BJP won in 2021. Tribal constituency with BJP-friendly consolidation. BJP Likely.

Gangarampur (SC): TMC won in 2021. Their booth network is strong. TMC Likely.

Harirampur: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Dakshin Dinajpur Verdict: BJP should win 2 seats with a chance at a third.

NORTH BENGAL PHASE 1 TOTAL ESTIMATE:

BJP: 26 to 30 seats out of 42 North Bengal seats in Phase 1.

TMC: 12 to 16 seats.

JUNGLE MAHAL AND WEST BENGAL INTERIOR DISTRICTS

8. Purulia: 9 Seats

Purulia is part of Junglemahal, the region where BJP made its most dramatic gains in 2021, winning around 30 seats across Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Paschim Medinipur combined.  Purulia has a large tribal and OBC population and has been BJP territory since 2019.

Bandwan (ST): BJP won in 2021. Tribal seat. BJP Likely.

Balarampur: BJP won in 2021. Strong BJP territory. BJP Likely.

Baghmundi: Competitive but BJP has the edge. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Joypur: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Purulia: District headquarters seat. BJP candidate Sudip Kumar Mukherjee is defending. BJP Likely.

Manbazar (ST): Tribal seat. BJP competitive. Toss Up.

Kashipur: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Para (SC): TMC competitive in this SC seat. Toss Up.

Raghunathpur (SC): BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Purulia Verdict: BJP should win 6 to 7 seats. TMC might hold 2.

9. Bankura: 12 Seats

Bankura is mixed terrain. BJP made big gains in 2021 but TMC has been working hard to recover in local elections. The Bishnupur area has a strong cultural Hindu identity that BJP activates well.

Saltora (SC): Competitive. Toss Up.

Chhatna: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Ranibandh (ST): Tribal seat. BJP competitive. Toss Up.

Raipur (ST): BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Taldangra: Competitive seat. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Bankura: District headquarters. BJP won in 2021. BJP candidate Niladri Sekhar Dana is defending. BJP Likely.

Barjora: TMC competitive here. Toss Up.

Onda: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Bishnupur: Culturally significant seat. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Katulpur (SC): TMC competitive. Toss Up.

Indus (SC): BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Sonamukhi (SC): Closely contested. Toss Up.

Bankura Verdict: BJP should win 6 to 7 seats. TMC can win 4 to 5.

10. Jhargram: 4 Seats

Jhargram is solid BJP territory. The tribal population here has been consolidating behind BJP since 2019.

Nayagram (ST): BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Gopiballavpur: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Jhargram: District headquarters. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Keshiary (ST): Tribal seat. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Jhargram Verdict: BJP should sweep all 4 seats.

11. Paschim Medinipur: 19 Seats

Paschim Medinipur is Suvendu Adhikari's home district in spirit and is one of BJP's strongest performing districts.

Kharagpur Sadar: BJP candidate Dilip Ghosh contesting. One of the most high-profile seats in Phase 1. BJP won here in 2021. BJP Likely.

Narayangarh: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Sabang: TMC competitive here. Toss Up.

Pingla: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Kharagpur: Industrial town seat. BJP competitive but TMC has recovered some ground. Toss Up.

Debra: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Daspur: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Ghatal (SC): TMC hold in this SC seat. TMC Likely.

Chandrakona (SC): Competitive SC seat. Toss Up.

Garbeta: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Salboni: BJP candidate Biman Mahto is defending. BJP Likely.

Keshpur (SC): TMC hold with strong local network. TMC Likely.

Medinipur: District headquarters. BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Dantan: BJP won in 2021. BJP Likely.

Paschim Medinipur Verdict: BJP should win 10 to 11 seats. TMC can win 4 to 5.

12. Purba Medinipur: 16 Seats

Purba Medinipur is the most politically significant district in all of Phase 1 because it contains Nandigram, where Suvendu Adhikari is contesting directly against a TMC heavyweight.

Nandigram: Nandigram grabbed national attention in the 2021 assembly elections when Suvendu Adhikari defeated Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in a high-stakes contest, turning it into one of the most politically symbolic seats in the state. Suvendu is contesting from Nandigram again in 2026. BJP Likely but expect a fierce fight.

Panskura Purba: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Panskura Paschim: Competitive seat. Toss Up.

Moyna: TMC competitive here. TMC Likely.

Nandakumar: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Mahisadal: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Haldia (SC): TMC hold in this industrial SC seat. TMC Likely.

Chandipur: BJP competitive. Toss Up.

Patashpur: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Kanthi Uttar: Competitive seat. Toss Up.

Bhagabanpur: BJP competitive. Toss Up.

Khejuri (SC): TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Kanthi Dakshin: BJP has been building here. Toss Up.

Ramnagar: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Egra: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Purba Medinipur Verdict: BJP should win 3 to 4 seats including Nandigram. TMC will hold 10 to 11.

13. Paschim Bardhaman: 9 Seats

Paschim Bardhaman is coal belt and mining country. It has a strong industrial working class voter base and the BJP-Left-TMC three-way contest is real here.

Asansol Dakshin: The constituency is currently represented by BJP's Agnimitra Paul since 2021. She is defending this seat again. BJP Likely.

Asansol Uttar: Competitive urban seat. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Jamuria: Left has historical presence here. Competitive three-way. Toss Up.

Raniganj: Mining belt seat. TMC competitive. Toss Up.

Kulti: TMC hold with industrial worker voter base. TMC Likely.

Barabani: Competitive seat. Toss Up.

Salanpur: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Andal: Three-way contest. Toss Up.

Durgapur Purba: BJP competitive here. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Paschim Bardhaman Verdict: BJP should win 3 to 4 seats. TMC holds 3. The remaining 2 to 3 are genuine toss ups.

MURSHIDABAD AND MALDA DISTRICTS

14. Murshidabad: 22 Seats

Murshidabad is TMC's strongest Muslim-majority district. With nearly 67 percent Muslim population, this is extremely difficult terrain for BJP. Congress and Left-Congress may eat into TMC vote in some seats.

Farakka: TMC Likely.

Samserganj: TMC Likely.

Suti: TMC Likely.

Jangipur: TMC Likely.

Raghunathganj: TMC Likely.

Sagardighi: TMC Likely.

Lalgola: TMC Likely.

Bhagawangola: TMC Likely.

Raninagar: TMC Likely.

Murshidabad: District headquarters. TMC Likely.

Nabagram (SC): TMC Likely.

Khargram (SC): Congress has some presence here historically. Toss Up leaning TMC.

Burwan (SC): TMC Likely.

Kandi: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Bharatpur: TMC Likely.

Rejinagar: TMC Likely.

Beldanga: TMC Likely.

Baharampur: This is the Congress stronghold of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury's territory. Congress can win here. Toss Up leaning Congress.

Hariharpara: TMC Likely.

Naoda: TMC Likely.

Domkal: TMC Likely.

Jalangi: TMC Likely.

Murshidabad Verdict: TMC should win 18 to 20 seats. Congress has a real chance in Baharampur. BJP is unlikely to win here.

15. Malda: 12 Seats

Malda has a mixed voter base with significant Muslim population and some Hindu consolidation in specific seats. Congress has historical presence here through the Mausam Noor family.

Habibpur (ST): BJP won this in 2021. Their reliable seat in Malda. BJP Likely.

Gazole (SC): Competitive but TMC has the edge. TMC Likely.

Chanchal: Significant Muslim voter base. TMC Likely.

Harischandrapur: TMC stronghold. TMC Likely.

Malatipur: Congress candidate Mausam Noor is contesting. Congress can be competitive here. Toss Up leaning TMC-Congress.

Ratua: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Manikchak: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Malda English Bazar: District headquarters. Three-way contest. Toss Up.

Mothabari: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Sujapur: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Baishnabnagar: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Malda Verdict: BJP wins 1 seat. TMC wins 8 to 10. Congress competitive in 1 to 2.

BIRBHUM DISTRICT

16. Birbhum: 11 Seats

Birbhum is Anubrata Mondal's political fortress. Despite his legal troubles, TMC's organisational machine in Birbhum is arguably the most powerful at the district level in all of Bengal. BJP made some inroads in 2021 but Birbhum remains predominantly TMC.

Dubrajpur: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Siuri: District headquarters. TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Bolpur: Bolpur is culturally significant as the seat near Shantiniketan. TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Nanoor: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Labpur: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Sainthia: BJP competitive in 2021. Toss Up.

Mayureshwar: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Rampurhat: BJP won in 2021. Toss Up leaning BJP.

Hansan: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Nalhati: TMC hold. TMC Likely.

Murarai: Large Muslim population. TMC Likely.

Birbhum Verdict: BJP can win 1 to 2 seats at most. TMC dominates this district.

PHASE 1 OVERALL PREDICTION

Here is the district by district seat tally estimate for Phase 1 across all 152 seats:

Cooch Behar 9 seats: BJP 4 to 5, TMC 4 to 5

Alipurduar 5 seats: BJP 4, TMC 1

Jalpaiguri 7 seats: BJP 4 to 5, TMC 2 to 3

Darjeeling 5 seats: BJP 4, TMC 1

Kalimpong 1 seat: BJP 1

Uttar Dinajpur 9 seats: BJP 2 to 3, TMC 6 to 7

Dakshin Dinajpur 6 seats: BJP 2, TMC 4

Purulia 9 seats: BJP 6 to 7, TMC 2 to 3

Bankura 12 seats: BJP 6 to 7, TMC 4 to 5

Jhargram 4 seats: BJP 4, TMC 0

Paschim Medinipur 19 seats: BJP 10 to 11, TMC 7 to 8

Purba Medinipur 16 seats: BJP 3 to 4, TMC 11 to 12

Paschim Bardhaman 9 seats: BJP 3 to 4, TMC 4 to 5

Murshidabad 22 seats: BJP 0, TMC 18 to 20, Congress 1 to 2

Malda 12 seats: BJP 1, TMC 9 to 10

Birbhum 11 seats: BJP 1 to 2, TMC 9 to 10

Phase 1 Total Estimate:

BJP: 55 to 65 seats out of 152

TMC: 82 to 92 seats out of 152

Congress and Others: 1 to 3 seats

What Phase 1 Means for the Full Election

Phase 1 is BJP's stronger phase. It covers their North Bengal fortress and the Jungle Mahal where they gained most of their 77 seats in 2021. If BJP cannot win 60 plus seats in Phase 1, their chances of crossing 100 overall become very slim.

TMC needs Phase 1 to limit the damage in North Bengal and Jungle Mahal while protecting Murshidabad and Malda completely. If TMC can hold 85 plus in Phase 1, they enter Phase 2 covering Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia, and the 24 Parganas with a commanding lead that will be very hard to overcome.

The battle of Bengal 2026 begins on April 23. Bharat and Beyond will be with you every step of the way through results day on May 4.

Disclaimer:

This is an independent political analysis based on available data, historical voting patterns, and current ground trends. All seat projections are estimates and not definitive results. Electoral outcomes can change due to turnout variations, candidate performance, and late swings during polling.