Exit Poll Verdict on Assam, Kerala and Puducherry: What the Numbers Say and What Bharat and Beyond Thinks

Exit Poll Verdict on Assam, Kerala and Puducherry: What the Numbers Say and What Bharat and Beyond Thinks

The exit polls are out. After weeks of campaigning, two phases of voting, record turnout numbers, and enough political drama to fill a decade of newspaper front pages, the polling agencies have delivered their verdicts for three of the five states that voted in April 2026.

Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry voted on April 9. Results come on May 4. But exit polls released after 6:30 PM on April 29, once the Bengal Phase 2 booths closed, have given us the first real glimpse of what May 4 might look like for these three states.

Bharat and Beyond brings you the complete exit poll picture and then gives you our honest, independent assessment of whether we believe the numbers.

ASSAM

What the Exit Polls Say

The exit poll consensus for Assam is emphatic. BJP is projected to dominate the Assam assembly election 2026 exit polls. Chanakya predicts 102 seats plus or minus 9 out of 126. Axis My India projects 88 to 100 seats. Matrize projects 85 to 95 seats. Peoples Pulse projects up to 72 seats for BJP. Congress is projected at 23 seats plus or minus 9 by Chanakya.

The range across agencies is wide. Chanakya at 102 and Peoples Pulse at 72 represent very different political realities. However the consensus direction is unmistakable. BJP wins. The question is by how much.

The majority mark in Assam's 126-seat assembly is 64. Every single exit poll, including the most conservative projection by Peoples Pulse at 72 seats, places BJP above the majority mark. This is an extremely high-confidence call for BJP forming a government.

The most significant number in the Assam exit poll is not the seat count. It is what a BJP win at 85 to 102 seats represents historically. No party has won three consecutive terms in Assam since independence. If these exit polls hold on May 4, Himanta Biswa Sarma would achieve something no Chief Minister in Assam's post-independence history has achieved.

Bharat and Beyond Opinion on Assam

We believe the BJP win in Assam is well-established and the exit polls are directionally correct. The high turnout of 85.38 percent in Assam on April 9, which we covered extensively in our April 11 blog, is now being interpreted through the exit poll lens as a wave election rather than a split verdict.

The minority-dominated constituency turnout surge that we flagged as a potential warning sign for BJP on April 11 appears, based on exit poll projections, to have been offset by an even more powerful consolidation of Hindu OBC, upper caste, and tea garden worker votes behind BJP. The Congress-led Asom Sonmilito Morcha under Gaurav Gogoi, despite running its best-organised campaign since 2016, appears to have been unable to convert anti-incumbency sentiment into a seat count that challenges BJP's structural advantage.

Our Bharat and Beyond call for Assam: BJP wins 82 to 96 seats. Himanta Biswa Sarma forms Assam's first-ever third consecutive government. Gaurav Gogoi emerges as a stronger opposition leader but does not become Chief Minister. We lean slightly below Chanakya's top-end projection of 102 but firmly above the majority mark.

KERALA

What the Exit Polls Say

Kerala is where the exit poll story is the most dramatic and the most consequential.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front is on course to secure a comfortable majority in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections according to exit polls. The UDF is projected between 88 and 92 seats, comfortably above the majority threshold of 70 in the 140-member House. The ruling Left Democratic Front is facing a sharp decline with the survey estimating its share at 42 to 46 seats. On vote share, the UDF is estimated at 38.5 percent with the LDF trailing at 33.4 percent. The NDA holds a stable base at 20.2 percent, though that support is not translating into seat numbers. 

Surveys such as Axis My India and Matrize place the UDF comfortably ahead with estimates ranging between 70 and 90 seats. The ruling LDF is projected to fall short with most exit polls giving it between 49 and 69 seats. The BJP-led NDA will be limited to 0 to 5 seats. 

The Manorama News C-Voter exit poll, based on 28,848 voters surveyed between April 9 and 24, projects the UDF to win 82 to 94 seats, with the LDF dropping to 44 to 56 seats and the NDA at 1 to 3 seats. 

The regional breakdown from the Manorama C-Voter survey is revealing. In Malappuram, which has 16 constituencies, the LDF is projected to win only 0 to 1 seats while the UDF is set for a thumping win of 14 to 16 seats. In Kozhikode, the UDF is estimated to bag 9 to 11 seats, limiting LDF to 2 to 4 seats, a dramatic reversal from 2021 when LDF swept 11 seats there. In Ernakulam, the exit poll results project LDF at 0 to 2 seats with the UDF winning 12 to 14. 

These regional numbers tell the story of a state-wide anti-LDF wave. This is not a marginal swing. This is a broad-based voter rejection of Pinarayi Vijayan's third-term bid.

On leadership perception, KC Venugopal tops the influence rating at 21.4 percent, ahead of CM Vijayan at 18.6 percent. When voters were asked about their preferred Chief Minister, VD Satheesan emerged narrowly ahead with 21.2 percent, just edging out Vijayan at 20.5 percent. 

Bharat and Beyond Opinion on Kerala

We believe the UDF win in Kerala is real and these exit polls are directionally accurate. Kerala has followed an almost mechanical alternation pattern between the two fronts for 50 years. The LDF already broke that pattern by winning in 2021. Attempting to break it again in 2026 was always the steepest possible political climb.

The Kozhikode swing is the most striking regional signal. In 2021, the UDF had to be content with just 2 seats in Kozhikode while the LDF swept 11 seats. This time, the UDF is estimated to bag 9 to 11 seats in Kozhikode. A swing of this magnitude in a single district, from 2 to 10 seats, reflects a decisive voter mood change that no exit poll would manufacture.

On the NDA performance, our pre-election analysis had projected BJP winning 3 to 6 seats. The exit poll consensus of 0 to 5 seats is consistent with our assessment that BJP's Kerala breakthrough, while real in vote share terms, has not yet converted fully into seats. Rajeev Chandrasekhar's Nemom result will be the most watched single constituency number on May 4.

Our Bharat and Beyond call for Kerala: UDF wins 70  to 90 seats. LDF wins 50 to 65 seats. NDA wins 1 to 4 seats. VD Satheesan becomes Kerala's next Chief Minister. Pinarayi Vijayan's historic attempt at a third consecutive term ends with a decisive electoral verdict against LDF incumbency.

PUDUCHERRY

What the Exit Polls Say

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the NDA is likely to win 16 to 20 out of the total 30 assembly seats in Puducherry. The INDIA bloc comprising Congress, DMK, and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi is projected to win 6 to 8 seats. Vijay's TVK may win 2 to 4 seats and others could bag 1 to 3 seats. 

The NDA's projected 16 to 20 seats in a 30-seat assembly means the exit poll is calling a clear NDA majority. The majority mark is 16. Even at the lower end of the projection at 16 seats, NDA forms the government.

The entry of TVK and NTK introduces a layer of complexity that did not exist in either 2016 or 2021. In a 30-seat assembly where a handful of seats determine the government, those margins matter enormously.

Puducherry's record-breaking turnout of 89.87 percent, the highest in the union territory's entire electoral history, appears to have benefited the incumbent NDA alliance rather than the opposition. This is consistent with our pre-poll analysis which noted that the NDA was the slight favourite going into April 9 despite the tightest political atmosphere Puducherry has seen in decades.

TVK winning 2 to 4 seats in its very first election is a significant result for Vijay's party. In a 30-seat assembly, even 2 to 3 seats gives TVK enormous political leverage in any post-election arithmetic.

Bharat and Beyond Opinion on Puducherry

We believe the NDA win in Puducherry is being called correctly. N. Rangasamy's personal connect with ordinary voters, the BJP-AINRC alliance discipline, and the central government's visible interest in the union territory have together produced what appears to be a comfortable enough NDA majority.

The Congress-DMK combine's 6 to 8 seat projection represents a performance significantly below their expectations but one that keeps them as a relevant opposition force in this small assembly.

Our Bharat and Beyond call for Puducherry: NDA wins 17 to 20 seats. Congress-DMK wins 7 to 9 seats. TVK wins 2 to 3 seats. N. Rangasamy becomes Chief Minister for a fifth time. BJP state president VP Ramalingam likely wins Raj Bhavan constituency and becomes BJP's strongest face in Puducherry going forward.

The Big Picture After Three States

If these exit polls hold on May 4, the political scorecard looks like this:

BJP and NDA wins: Assam and Puducherry.

Congress and UDF wins: Kerala.

This is a 2-1 split that both BJP and Congress can claim partial credit for. However the scale matters. BJP winning a historic third term in Assam with 85 to 102 seats is a far more dramatic political statement than Congress winning Kerala, which was the expected historical alternation.

The two results that will have the biggest national political significance on May 4 are West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Those are covered in our May 3 blog. Stay with Bharat and Beyond.