The 23 Seats BJP Lost in 2022: Can the Party Win Back in Uttarakhand 2027?

BJP won 47 of Uttarakhand's 70 Assembly seats in 2022. But what if the real story of the 2027 election lies in the 23 seats it failed to win?

The Bharatiya Janata Party returned to power in Uttarakhand in 2022 with 47 seats, well above the majority mark of 36. Congress won 19 seats, while two seats went to the Bahujan Samaj Party and two were won by Independents. BJP also secured 44.3% of the statewide vote against 37.9% for Congress.

At first glance, those numbers suggest a comfortable BJP victory. But elections are not decided by statewide vote share alone. A party can dominate the state while losing individual constituencies because of candidate choices, local issues, factional politics, vote splitting or a strong opponent.

That is exactly why the 23 seats BJP did not win in 2022 have become an important part of its preparations for 2027.

The party has now assigned senior leaders to these constituencies and is conducting what has been described as a micro management exercise. Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami has been given responsibility for Khatima, BJP state president Mahendra Bhatt for Piran Kaliyar and Garhwal MP Anil Baluni for Badrinath. Other senior leaders, including former chief ministers and ministers, have also been assigned constituencies.

The objective is straightforward. BJP wants to understand why it lost these seats in 2022 and address weaknesses before voters return to the ballot box.

What Happened in 2022?

The 2022 election was historic for Uttarakhand because the incumbent government returned to power after a full term. BJP won 47 seats, down from its 57 seat performance in 2017, but still retained a clear majority. Congress increased its tally to 19 from 11 in 2017.

The 23 seats outside the BJP column were not politically uniform.

Congress won 19 of them. The remaining four were divided between BSP and Independents.

The Congress victories included Badrinath, Pratapnagar, Chakrata, Jwalapur, Bhagwanpur, Jhabrera, Piran Kaliyar, Roorkee, Haridwar Rural, Dharchula, Pithoragarh, Dwarahat, Almora, Lohaghat, Haldwani, Jaspur, Bajpur, Kichha and Khatima.

The two BSP victories came in Manglaur and Laksar, while Independents won Yamunotri and Khanpur.

The geographical pattern is particularly interesting.

In the Garhwal region, BJP's losses included Badrinath, Pratapnagar, Chakrata, Jwalapur, Bhagwanpur, Jhabrera, Piran Kaliyar, Roorkee and Haridwar Rural, along with Yamunotri and Khanpur. In Kumaon, Congress won Dharchula, Pithoragarh, Dwarahat, Almora, Lohaghat, Haldwani, Jaspur, Bajpur, Kichha and Khatima, while Manglaur and Laksar went to BSP.

The margins also tell a different story from a simple 23 seat count.

The 23 Seats: What the 2022 Numbers Tell Us

Garhwal Region

Yamunotri

Winner: Sanjay Dobhal, Independent

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 6,639 votes

Badrinath

Winner: Rajendra Singh Bhandari, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 2,066 votes

Pratapnagar

Winner: Vikram Singh Negi, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 2,340 votes

Chakrata

Winner: Pritam Singh, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 9,436 votesi

Haridwar District

Jwalapur

Winner: Ravi Bahadur, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 13,343 votes

Bhagwanpur

Winner: Mamta Rakesh, Congress

BJP position: 3rd

Winning margin: 4,811 votes

Jhabrera

Winner: Virendra Kumar, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 8,036 votes

Piran Kaliyar

Winner: Furkan Ahmad, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 15,743 votes

Khanpur

Winner: Umesh Kumar, Independent

BJP position: 3rd

Winning margin: 6,852 votes

Manglaur

Winner: Sarwat Kareem Ansari, BSP

BJP position: 3rd

Winning margin: 598 votes

Laksar

Winner: Shahzad, BSP

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 10,440 votes

Haridwar Rural

Winner: Anupama Rawat, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 4,472 votes

Kumaon Region

Dharchula

Winner: Harish Singh Dhami, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 1,118 votes

Pithoragarh

Winner: Mayukh Singh Mahar, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 6,054 votes

Dwarahat

Winner: Madan Singh Bisht, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 182 votes

Almora

Winner: Manoj Tiwari, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 127 votes

Lohaghat

Winner: Khushal Singh Adhikari, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 6,038 votes

Haldwani

Winner: Sumit Hridayesh, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 7,814 votes

Jaspur

Winner: Adesh Singh Chauhan, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 4,172 votes

Bajpur

Winner: Yashpal Arya, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 1,611 votes

Kichha

Winner: Tilak Raj Behar, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 10,077 votes

Nanakmatta

Winner: Gopal Singh Rana, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 13,020 votes

Khatima

Winner: Bhuwan Chandra Kapri, Congress

BJP position: Runner up

Winning margin: 6,579 votes

The 2022 Manglaur result was decided by 598 votes between BSP and Congress, while BJP finished third. The table therefore illustrates why Manglaur cannot simply be treated as a conventional BJP versus Congress contest.

Several of these results were extremely close.

Almora was decided by just 127 votes. Dwarahat by 182. Dharchula by 1,118, Bajpur by 1,611, Badrinath by 2,066 and Roorkee by 2,277. These are very different contests from seats such as Piran Kaliyar, where Congress won by more than 15,000 votes.

This is why calling all 23 seats "weak seats" would be misleading. Some were narrow defeats. Others represented much deeper political challenges.

Why Did BJP Lose These Seats?

There is no single explanation.

In some constituencies, the candidate mattered. In others, local political equations mattered more than the statewide BJP wave. Some contests were affected by Independents or smaller parties drawing enough votes to alter the final result.

Badrinath is a useful example. Congress's Rajendra Singh Bhandari defeated BJP's Mahendra Bhatt by 2,066 votes. The result was competitive rather than a large Congress victory.

Khatima was another unusual case. Pushkar Singh Dhami, the sitting chief minister, lost his constituency to Congress's Bhuwan Chandra Kapri by 6,579 votes. Dhami later entered the Assembly through a bypoll from Champawat.

Dwarahat and Almora demonstrate another point. Congress won both, but the margins were only 182 and 127 votes respectively.

At the same time, some BJP losses were much more substantial. Congress won Piran Kaliyar by 15,743 votes, while Kichha and Nanakmatta were also decided by margins above 10,000.

Therefore, the BJP's 2027 challenge is not simply to increase its vote everywhere. It needs to understand the specific reason for each defeat.

A candidate who is unpopular locally cannot necessarily be rescued by national popularity. A strong local candidate can sometimes outperform the broader state trend. And where a smaller party or Independent has a significant base, vote fragmentation can reshape the contest.

BJP's 2027 Strategy

The BJP's approach has become more constituency specific than it was immediately after the 2022 election.

In early 2026, the party began focusing on seats where it either lost narrowly or had struggled historically. Reports said the party was working on a multi layered plan involving booth level organisation, senior leader visits and detailed constituency assessments.

By August, the strategy had become more clearly defined. Senior leaders were assigned individual constituencies among the 23 seats BJP lost in 2022.

Dhami was assigned Khatima. Mahendra Bhatt was given Piran Kaliyar. Anil Baluni was assigned Badrinath. Naresh Bansal was given Manglaur. BJP leaders Deepti Rawat and Ganesh Bhandari were assigned Chakrata and Dharchula respectively. Other seats were allocated to senior leaders, MPs and former chief ministers.

This matters because the strategy goes beyond simply holding rallies.

The assigned leaders are expected to interact with local workers, examine political equations, identify organisational weaknesses and strengthen booth level activity. BJP has also been focusing on booths where its performance was weak and on bringing greater coordination between government programmes and party organisation.

The party has also discussed bringing active workers from rival parties into its organisation, particularly in closely contested constituencies. Reports in March said BJP was looking at a target of around 3,000 rival workers across each Assembly constituency as part of its broader organisational exercise.

Whether every element of this strategy translates into votes is a separate question. But organisationally, BJP is clearly treating the 23 seats as individual political battles rather than one statewide problem.

Can BJP Convert These Weak Seats Into Opportunities?

BJP does not need to recover all 23 seats to retain a majority.

That point is important.

The party already starts from the 47 seats it won in 2022. Recovering several lost constituencies would provide additional cushion, while even defending its existing seats would remain important.

For BJP, eight areas stand out in the preparation.

First, candidate selection. The party will need candidates who can connect with local voters, not merely names with statewide recognition.

Second, faction management. Internal disagreements can damage a party even when its organisation is strong.

Third, booth organisation. A few thousand votes can decide a constituency, making booth level mobilisation important.

Fourth, youth outreach. Employment, recruitment examinations and migration remain major political themes in Uttarakhand.

Fifth, government performance. Statewide schemes and development work can help the BJP, but their political value depends partly on whether voters see results in their own constituency.

Sixth, communication. The party needs to explain its record while responding to local grievances.

Seventh, rebel management. Independent candidates and dissatisfied party workers can complicate closely fought contests.

Eighth, margins. Recovering a seat lost by 127 votes is obviously a different organisational task from challenging a seat lost by 15,743 votes.

The BJP's current strategy appears designed around precisely this distinction.

Congress's Defence

Congress enters this part of the 2027 contest with a different challenge.

It already holds 19 of the 23 seats BJP lost in 2022. Its task is therefore not only to attack the government but also to defend its own incumbents.

That creates its own vulnerabilities.

A Congress MLA can face local anti incumbency just as a BJP MLA can. Constituency level dissatisfaction, candidate changes and factional disagreements can affect an incumbent party.

At the same time, Congress has a clear political narrative available to it. Its 2026 campaign has focused heavily on unemployment, recruitment controversies, education, healthcare, migration, inflation and governance. The party has also increased youth outreach and organisational activity ahead of the election.

The question is whether Congress can turn its 2022 victories into durable local political bases.

The difference matters.

Winning a seat once does not automatically create a long term constituency. Congress will need functioning booth committees, visible local leadership and candidates capable of defending their personal vote base against a BJP organisation that is already targeting these constituencies.

The Margin Matters

The 2022 numbers make the importance of margins impossible to ignore.

Almora was decided by 127 votes. Dwarahat by 182. Dharchula by 1,118. Bajpur by 1,611. Badrinath by 2,066. Roorkee by 2,277.

These results show why statewide vote share can sometimes hide the real electoral picture.

A relatively small movement in support can change the result in a closely contested constituency. But the opposite is also true. A party cannot assume that every narrow loss will automatically become a narrow win in the next election.

Candidate changes, turnout, local alliances, campaign intensity and the presence of Independents can all alter the equation.

The 23 seats therefore contain several different kinds of contests.

Hills vs Plains

The political issues are also likely to vary geographically.

In hill constituencies such as Badrinath, Pratapnagar, Chakrata, Dharchula, Pithoragarh, Dwarahat, Almora and Lohaghat, questions around migration, employment, roads, healthcare, education, tourism and environmental pressures can carry substantial political weight.

In the plains, including Haridwar, parts of Dehradun and Udham Singh Nagar, the political conversation can be more closely connected with urban development, industrial employment, infrastructure, population growth, law and order and civic services.

This does not mean hill voters care only about hill issues or plains voters care only about urban issues. Uttarakhand's political divisions are more complicated than that.

But a statewide campaign cannot always substitute for constituency specific messaging.

The BJP's decision to assign senior leaders to individual seats reflects this reality.

The Dhami Factor

Pushkar Singh Dhami's role will be important because the chief minister himself has a direct connection with one of the 23 seats.

Dhami lost Khatima in 2022 but later won the Champawat bypoll by a very large margin. He has since completed five continuous years as chief minister, becoming the first BJP chief minister in Uttarakhand to complete five continuous years in office.

His government has placed major emphasis on the Uniform Civil Code, recruitment reforms, infrastructure, tourism, welfare and government employment.

These achievements can become part of BJP's statewide campaign. But they cannot automatically erase local dissatisfaction.

A road project in one constituency may matter little to a voter whose main concern is recruitment. A statewide policy may receive political attention while a local dispute remains unresolved.

That is why the Dhami factor will have to work at two levels, statewide governance and constituency level delivery.

The Modi Factor

Narendra Modi and the BJP's national organisation will also remain part of the campaign.

The BJP has a powerful national campaign structure, established booth machinery and the ability to connect state elections with central government schemes and national leadership.

That can strengthen the party's campaign.

But Assembly elections are ultimately fought constituency by constituency.

The 2022 results demonstrate this clearly. BJP won the state comfortably while still losing 23 individual constituencies. National popularity can contribute to a campaign, but it does not automatically determine the identity of every MLA.

For BJP, the challenge is therefore to convert organisational strength into local electoral performance.

What Congress Needs to Do

Congress's defence will require more than relying on the fact that it already holds these seats.

Early candidate decisions could help sitting MLAs build their campaigns. Strong booth structures would allow the party to compete with BJP's organisational machinery.

Youth mobilisation will also be important. Employment and recruitment remain issues around which Congress has already built a significant part of its campaign.

Migration is another long standing concern, particularly in the hills.

But Congress also has to manage its internal politics. The party has historically had strong local leaders in Uttarakhand, which can be an advantage when they work together but a problem when competing factions dominate the campaign.

Its challenge is to defend the 19 seats it won in 2022 while also creating enough organisational strength to challenge BJP elsewhere.

The Seats to Watch

Rather than calling any constituency safe or likely to change hands, several seats deserve attention because of their 2022 numbers or political history.

Badrinath stands out because BJP lost by only 2,066 votes and the constituency has already received direct organisational attention from BJP MP Anil Baluni.

Khatima deserves attention because of Dhami's personal connection with the seat and his 2022 defeat there.

Almora is impossible to ignore because Congress won by only 127 votes.

Dwarahat was even closer, with Congress winning by 182 votes.

Dharchula was decided by 1,118 votes, making it another closely contested constituency.

Bajpur was decided by 1,611 votes, with Congress's Yashpal Arya defeating BJP's Rajesh Kumar.

Roorkee produced a 2,277 vote Congress victory and therefore remains relevant when examining narrow margins.

Pratapnagar was another relatively close Congress victory, decided by 2,340 votes.

Jaspur was decided by 4,172 votes, placing it among the closer contests in Udham Singh Nagar.

Haridwar Rural was also relatively close, with Congress winning by 4,472 votes.

These constituencies should not be treated as a ranking. They simply illustrate different reasons why the 23 seat group deserves attention.

Three Possible Scenarios

Scenario 1: BJP Recovers Several Lost Seats

BJP could improve its 2022 performance in a number of these constituencies if its booth level preparation, candidate selection and senior leader intervention address weaknesses identified after the previous election.

This scenario would strengthen the party's overall position, particularly if several narrow defeats are reversed.

Scenario 2: Mixed Result

Some BJP losses could be reversed while Congress successfully defends others.

This is perhaps the most useful way to understand the 23 seats because the constituencies are so different from one another.

A 127 vote defeat in Almora, a 9,436 vote defeat in Chakrata and a 15,743 vote defeat in Piran Kaliyar cannot reasonably be analysed using the same political formula.

Scenario 3: Congress Holds Its Ground

Congress could retain most of the constituencies it won in 2022.

That would limit BJP's ability to increase its majority through recovering lost seats and would make the party's existing 47 seat base more important.

Again, these are scenarios, not predictions.

Conclusion: The 23 Seat Question

So, can BJP win back the 23 seats it lost in 2022?

The more useful question is what happens inside those constituencies between now and the 2027 election.

BJP has already recognised that its statewide vote share is not enough. Its decision to assign senior leaders to individual constituencies, strengthen booth organisation and examine local political equations shows a more targeted approach to the problem.

Congress has a different advantage. It starts with 19 sitting constituencies that it successfully captured in 2022. If it can maintain local organisation, defend its incumbents and keep employment, migration and governance issues politically relevant, it can make those victories more durable.

The key point is that the 23 seats are not one political category.

Some were decided by tiny margins. Some were comfortable victories for Congress. Some were won by BSP or Independents. Some have historically been difficult for BJP, while others became competitive because of individual candidates and local circumstances.

That makes constituency level politics central to understanding Uttarakhand 2027.

BJP does not need to recover all 23 seats to retain a majority. But recovering several could provide an additional cushion. Congress, meanwhile, cannot assume that holding these seats will be as straightforward as defending a fixed political map from 2022.

The next election will be fought in a different political environment, with different candidates, different local issues and five more years of government record to judge.

“In Uttarakhand 2027, the road to a majority may not run through all 70 constituencies. It could run through the 23 seats where BJP's 2022 victory stopped short.”

Next in Road to Uttarakhand 2027

Uttarakhand's Youth Vote: Can Jobs, Migration and Recruitment Issues Shape the Election?